WWIII? Part Two

Tensions between the US and North Korea continue to escalate, with many following the building tensions of how this will play out.

Abacus conducted a poll of 1,500 Canadians from August 11-15. Totals for each question are listed and are broken down into sex, age, political leanings and if respondents are or are not following this situation closely - 63% are.

A majority (69%) felt the US would take military action against North Korea, 47% that North Korea would launch missiles at South Korea, and 43% thought it likely that North Korea would launch a missile at the US.

Those are interesting findings. I believe the US will definitely take action, sooner than later. As well, I can see North Korea continuing to be the bully by attacking South Korea as has been the case in the past. I think it is highly unlikely the North Koreans will fire upon the US first. Doing so would cause immediate and severe retaliation. In the ensuing fire fight, Jong-un would stand a good chance of losing his dictatorship. A loss of power is the last thing he wants.

I side with 44% of Canadians who lack confidence in Trump to handle the situation with North Korea. One of the questions, "Do you think the steps that President Trump has been taking so far have made the risk of conflict go up or made the risk of conflict go down?", reports 84% of respondents saying it's gone up. I agree. Most of what Trump has said has added fuel to an already burning fire.

So what should the Canadian government do? Findings suggest 21% think we should support the US  while 79% chose to advocate for more diplomatic efforts. I believe we should be doing more in diplomatic efforts but if something breaks out we should support the US. A tough decision that's for sure.

The US and South Korea are currently participating in the annual Ulchi-Freedom Guardian military exercises. My understanding is that these are war games that are carried out in computer simulations. These simulations large numbers of military personnel - 17,000 from the US and 50,000 from South Korea. This year North Korea warned of a "second Korean War," if things proceed. My understanding is that they make these threats every year as they feel the exercises are in preparation for war against them.

Will this year prove to be the start of the next war? While Jong-un's threat to fire upon Guam was withdrawn, he stated he could reverse his decision "if the Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous reckless actions." Many believe the US and South Korea should scale back or postpone the exercises. Things have already escalated beyond where they've been in the past. North Korea is on the defensive; what sense does it make to carry through with something that you know is going to antagonise them? A wise man once said don't poke the bear. My thoughts exactly.

At what point is North Korea going to say to hell with it and take their frustrations out on their neighbour to the south? While not directly firing upon the US, such action will leave Trump no choice but to answer in turn. Of course Trump knows this, yet he proceeded with the exercises yesterday anyway. I sit here asking myself WTF?? Perhaps if Trump did kick things down a notch, or put them off for this year, he thinks he'd be giving in to North Korea. Losing face I suppose. However when is it time to strut your stuff and show off to the world and when is the time to go home and kick back with a book instead?

I don't profess to know much about this situation. I read the papers and watch the news and share my opinions on this blog, but I know nothing. The media tells us what they want us to know, information based on the bits and pieces they receive from governments who keep the majority of their thoughts and plans to themselves. Where will this go? I.just.don't.know.

Toodles